Free trading tools

    Expectancy calculator.

    The one number that tells you whether your system actually makes money. Enter your win rate and average win and loss - and see what every trade is worth on average, regardless of how often you win.

    YOUR STRATEGY
    Cumulative P&L over 100 trades+$5,250.00
    150100 trades

    A 40% win rate can still be highly profitable if winners run larger than losers. Enter your average loss as a positive number.

    EXPECTANCY PER TRADE
    +$52.50per trade
    Per dollar risked+$0.35
    Avg per winning trade+$135.00
    Avg per losing trade−$82.50
    Projected over 100 trades+$5,250.00

    Positive edge - each trade adds to your account on average, compounding over a large sample.

    WHY IT MATTERS

    Win rate lies. Expectancy doesn't.

    Expectancy combines your win rate and your average win and loss into one number that tells you whether your system actually has an edge - the single most important metric for evaluating a strategy.

    01

    See the edge a win rate hides

    A 70% win rate strategy can still bleed money if the losses are disproportionately large, while a 40% win rate system can be highly profitable when winners dwarf losers. Expectancy is the only number that settles it.

    02

    Know what to fix when you're losing

    If expectancy comes out negative, the formula points straight at the lever: raise your win rate, grow your average winner, or cut your average loser. You stop guessing and start adjusting the input that matters.

    03

    Trust it only with enough trades

    A handful of trades tells you almost nothing. Aim for at least 30 to 50 for a rough read and 100 or more before you treat the number as your real edge rather than random variance.

    THE FORMULA

    Expectancy = (Win rate × Avg win) − (Loss rate × Avg loss)

    E = (W% × AvgWin)
        − ((1 − W%) × AvgLoss)
    WORKED EXAMPLE
    45% win rate, $300 avg win+$135
    55% loss rate, $150 avg loss−$82.50
    Expectancy+$52.50 / trade

    You lose more often than you win, yet each trade is worth $52.50 on average because winners are twice the size of losers.

    Expectancy, answered.

    What is trading expectancy?
    Expectancy is the average dollar amount you expect to win or lose per trade over a large sample. It's calculated as (Win Rate × Average Win) − (Loss Rate × Average Loss). A positive expectancy means your strategy is profitable over time; a negative one means it loses money.
    How many trades do I need to calculate expectancy?
    A minimum of 30–50 trades is needed for a rough estimate, but 100+ trades gives you a statistically meaningful expectancy. The more trades in your sample, the more confident you can be that the number reflects your actual edge rather than random variance.
    Can I have a low win rate and still have positive expectancy?
    Absolutely. A trader who wins only 35% of the time but averages $3 on winners and $1 on losers has a positive expectancy of $0.40 per trade: (0.35 × $3) − (0.65 × $1) = $0.40. Many trend-following and breakout strategies operate with low win rates and high reward-to-risk ratios.
    What is a good expectancy value?
    Any positive expectancy means your strategy makes money. In practice, expectancy per dollar risked (R-expectancy) above 0.20R is considered solid. For dollar-based expectancy, it depends entirely on your position sizing - a $50 per-trade expectancy on a $100,000 account is meaningful when compounded over hundreds of trades.
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    Want this measured for you?

    TradeOlogy logs every trade and computes expectancy, win rate, profit factor and more from your real history - so you always know if your edge is holding.

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